Paint The Black

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Moncada Wednesday

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Welcome to Moncada Wednesday

Yesterday  or about 21 hours ago we dropped a decent article on Yoan Moncada, this season’s Tanaka obsession.

The article has most of the intel we’ve already picked off from stuff written  by McDaniel and Badler, but it does have an MLB round table discussion with Ron Darling doing most of the heavy lifting

Darling  is one of the many butts in Sports that Mike Francesa kisses, so  it escapes me why the dopes that produce his show didn’t have a spot with  the Met / TBS / MLBTV expert on Pope Francy’s snoozefest show yesterday re: the hottest  IFA topic in baseball  since Tanaka..

Gotta do better then opening with Guitar Jimmy Dolan’s email  to  an old man who  dissed Dolan’s silver spoon fed ass..Francesa did finally have a paid baseball spot /  chat that revolved around Sweet Lou Piniella who was wearing a sandwich board for some Diet Food Company

Francesa did what he does best, interrupt Sweet Lou  every chance he could, and filibustering our time with his specialty, revisionist history, this time rehashing the 1978  season..

Anyway without being able to  scout Moncada extensively and the fact he’s only 19, leaves a lot of gray area Re: the 5 tools he’s projected to bring with him to  MLB.

We’ve already O.D’d on his upside,  so  the con’s  if you will

If he was a high school player, (some of the higher signing bonuses in the past  have been Porcello who  got around $7.2M out of high school, Strasburg got $7.5M Harper $6.2M), Moncada isn’t only gonna blow away  the top IFA amateur contract, the  $8.27M signing bonus, inked by the D-Backs  and Yoan Lopez, he’s gonna put some Baseball OPs folks on the hot seat if his projected $80M fee doesn’t produce that  type of value

Some Minor league contracts in the past

Donavan Tate, Padres (2009, 1/3): $6.25MM
Buster Posey, Giants (2008, 1/5): $6.2MM
Tim Beckham, Rays (2008, 1/1): $6.15MM
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (2005, 1/1): $6.1MM
Matt Wieters, Orioles (2007, 1/5): $6MM
Eric Hosmer, Royals (2008, 1/3): $6MM
Joe Borchard, White Sox (2000, 1/12): $5.3MM
Joe Mauer, Twins (2001, 1/1): $5.15MM
B.J. Upton, Rays (2002, 1/2): $4.6MM

Where the Yanks might fall  short here is, do  they have the proper  Cuban intel inside the Island? They  don’t have a recent track record of signing any of the Cuba players. Who  can give them pertinent info on Moncada’s make up? We mentioned last  week he could be the Cuban Johnny Manziel, if I remember correctly Cashman  wasn’t enamored with Chapman’s make up, so he passed…?

Or was it just too much money for an unproven  commodity?

Though Moncada owned the competition in various tournaments he played in, it’s notable that he didn’t dominate the Cuban National Series. In 101 games with Cienfuegos, he put together a good-not-great slash line of .277/.388/.380 with only four home runs.

This is where Moncada differs from other studs who have come out of Cuba. Abreu, for example, left the CNS with a career 1.078 OPS. Cespedes left with a career .989 OPS. Castillo topped a .900 OPS in two of his final three seasons. Puig posted a 1.011 OPS in his second and last CNS season.

Moncada already looks like Marshawn Lynch so how much more will he fill out? He doesn’t project to be a slugger so 2nd base seems to be the position he might be slated for. Will  the Yanks think they have their 2nd baseman in Refsynder or Pirela for $79M less?

Where is the intel on his pitch recognition? How about his base running prowess, he could be another hog looking at  a wrist  watch like Brett Gardner when it comes to  reading pitches and or balls put in play.

Somebody is gonna have to  answer to  their bosses if Moncada turns out to be a bust, the guess here is AJ Preller  has already had a custom made chopping block  for his head.

The present  fastest gun in the West has talked his owner into having Kemp on the books  for over $86M from 2016 to  2019, Shields guaranteed $18 to $19M over the next 4 seasons, Upton a 1 yr rental, and the jury still out on Will Myers, AJ might as well keep his Rock Star status intact, although he may not be around by the time Moncada suits up  for the varsity

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Written by Sal

February 11, 2015 at 8:07 am

Posted in Uncategorized

9 Responses

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  1. Cashman is doing a good job flying under the radar on Moncada.. The media has also been way off on what the Yanks will do this off season.. In one berth Cashman mentions the lack of scouting intel on Moncada and the cuban players in general, in another breath he mentions how intensely they scouted Chapman

    I’d have to take my Cuban scouting team to task because they sure missed out on Abreu, Chapman, Puig, and Cespedes, who are all bargains… Cespedes will be the first Cuban to probably get over paid once he hits free agency after this season…

    sal

    February 11, 2015 at 8:38 am

  2. What is the fascination with this guy? The yanks have no f’ing money why would they go out and get him?????????????????????? Nancy Drew is going to play 2b who got 1 fucking hit in 2014 and it happened to be a double vs boston. If they were smart they would have signed Lester but that ship has long sailed. They are going to have to endure with what they have & hope for the best. McCan/Beltran/Tex cant be this bad again can they?

    Pretty Ricky

    February 11, 2015 at 11:03 am

  3. hahaha… hey ricky.. at least the Moncada money wouldn’t go against the AAV, that’s the only hope, but I don’t see them shelling out $80M for this kid…I think they have plenty of money, they just don’t want to pay the freight on that penalty

    They’ll start to spend again after 2016 when Tex and Beltran are gone… If Sabathia’s shoulder acts up, they won’t have to pick up his vesting 2017 option, that’ll give them another $24M to work with

    I think the fascination with Moncada is they’ll never be in a position to draft a 19 yr kid with upside, and if they do draft a kid with upside, based on Cashman’s track record he’ll be a bust….

    Lester – would have kicked their lux tax penalty to around $250M even more for Scherzer, that would be close to $70M over the $189M… half that and they’d have to pay a $35M penalty

    that’s a Ace and a decent middle of the rotation hurler money, we ain’t seeing any big FA’s until after 2016 is my guess.. Let’s hope some of these kids pan out, and I’m looking forward to Refsynder getting the 2nd base gig once Drew flames out, which should be May or June

    sal

    February 11, 2015 at 12:51 pm

  4. As a former college baseball player I have never understood the fascination with International players. In America you know these kids from junior high and watch them yet some 19 year old who no one knows anything about gets 100mil? The system is broken and I would love to see Refsnyder get a chance but he will be buried on the depth chart and rot in Scranton.

    Pretty Ricky

    February 11, 2015 at 12:54 pm

  5. Klapisch reported last Saturday that Hal has turned off the spigot,no more money going to be spent. I just can’t see them spending $100 million for some one who never played 1 second in the majors after not even making an offer for Scherzer,Lester or Shields. Of course they could sign him 5 seconds after you read this-lol I just wish I could have heard what went on during the meeting with Arod and the Yankee brass!! Looking forward to the real circus beginning when Arod shows up in Tampa.

    dallasbomber7

    February 11, 2015 at 2:25 pm

  6. Hey Ricky I certainly understand your point of view, I also think the reasons your pointing out will doom any Moncada deal in NY.. On the other hand the same scouts that have anointed Buxton, Bryant, Correa, and Lindor as the top 4 prospects in baseball think Moncada is on their level, that perks up my curiosity

    The Yanks would have to go in the tank for a few years before they would pick that high in the draft, so I can see where the payout could be worth it… Your still getting 6 yr’s of team control, once you put him on the 40 man roster and start his clock, maybe 3 yr’s before you have to deal with arbitration, but my guess if Moncada is as good as advertised he’d be a super 2.. Or you do what the Cubs did with Soler, they have him locked up 9 yr’s for $30M

    signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent from Cuba 6/30/12
    $6M signing bonus (half at signing, half by 1/13/13)
    12:$1M, 13:$1M, 14:$2M, 15:$2M, 16:$3M, 17:$3M, 18:$4M, 19:$4M, 20:$4M

    If this Soler kid turns into a Puig, who do we want Soler for $30M over 9 yr’s or Gardner 4yr’s for $52M.. Grant it Soler hasn’t done it yet, but man that kid hit’s balls to the moon

    Tanaka cost $175M and they got 136.1 innings out of him and a ripped up elbow, so they have taken chances in IFA.. Agreed that they were able to scout Tanaka for 4 or 5 yr’s, this kid only had 101 games at what would be AAA level is what their National team plays at is my guess

    the other intriguing thing about Moncada, he sort of profiles like guys who have come to the states and hit the ground running, Puig, Abreu, Chapman, Cespedes to a lesser extent.. He would be in your system 2 yr’s before making it to the Bronx, if he turns out to be a Cano like talent, he’s worth the value I think

    If Refsynder is the goods he’ll play is way onto the team, Drew isn’t blocking him not @ $5M for 1 yr

    Hey Big D, I still think the AAV is what kept them from not signing Scherzer or Lester or Shields, but I agree spending that type of money on a kid they couldn’t scout might also be the deal breaker

    anyway after reading that story on Refsynder, I’m rooting for him, so losing out on Moncada won’t destroy me, I won’t cry in my beer if they ink him either, again he’s 2 yr’s away from the varsity, gives Refsynder a chance to settle in, and we both know if you hit they’ll find a spot for you

    Yes fly on the wall for sure, I bet the Steinbrenner sister gave him the hardest time lol… See the ball, hit the ball Alex, and we’ll all love you to death…

    sal

    February 11, 2015 at 4:15 pm

  7. http://riveraveblues.com/2015/02/baseballs-newest-trend-benefit-yankees-last-summers-international-spending-spree-114053/

    Young players seem to be at a premium value, the Yanks spent a lot of dough on those IFA kids, and they have value either as trade chips or they could develop into stars.. Another reason the Moncada thing may not happen for us in NY..

    sal

    February 11, 2015 at 4:19 pm

  8. Everyone has made cogent points here. I’m still on the Moncada Bandwagon. True, the scary part is what do we know about this kid, as Sal pointed out. The Yankee scouting on this kid has been non-existent. Besides that, the Do-Re-Mi they’d have to pay out to this guy, with no scouting intel, could very well scare them off. They have the money, I just don’t feel very confident they’ll pull the trigger on a possible 80mm payout. But after everything has been said, I still want him. Jeez! It ain’t my money! Lol! Heard the Pinella spot. Torture. Fransayao never stops interrupting. And yeah, can’t wait till the DVD of Arod’s meeting comes out! Should be a classic!

    mosconebailbonds

    February 11, 2015 at 6:25 pm

  9. Scone, true that, the only money that hurts us as fans is the salary structure that Hal is paying the tax penalty on, so the AAV, and the signing bonus for Moncada wouldn’t go toward that

    sal

    February 12, 2015 at 7:32 am


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