Paint The Black

Baseball and Beyond

Monday Morning Quarter Back 12/14/15

with 10 comments

Oh What  a Relief It Is

Wade Davis: option yr $8M  / Ryan Madson : 3 yr’s $22M

Tony Sipp: 3 yrs $22M /  Darren O’Day: 4 yr’s $31M

Joakim Soria : 3 yr’s $25M / Brad Ziegler : 1 yr $5.5M

Ken Giles: traded for 5 players, 1 a first  round pick

John Axeford : 2Yr’s $10M / Mark Lowe: 2 yr’s $11M

Joaquin Benoit : 1 yr $7.5M / Jonathan Broxton : 2 yr’s $7.5M

Trevor Cahill 1 yr $4.5M /  J.P. Howell: 1 yr $6.5M

Jason Motte : 2 yr’s $10M /  Chad Qualls : a retread 2 yr’s $6M

Koji Uehara: 1 yr $9M

You see a trend here? 16 relievers, and I ran out of time scanning the whole board, all but Davis and Giles are set up  relievers, every one of these 16 make more money then any reliever on the Yanks sans Andrew Miller.

Davis became the Royals closer by default after Greg Holland went down  with TJ, or he’d be an $8M 8th inning guy.

Miller who  signed for $9M per has $27M remaining on his contract pails in comparison to Kimbrel $13M, Chapman $12.5M, Papelbon $13M AAV, David Robertson 3 yr’s $36M left on his deal

The lack of quality starting pitching, juxtaposed with the new Ace cost being in excess of $31M per yr, has finally brought value to  the high leverage 7 through 9 innings in baseball

The Royals have led the Three Headed Monster trend, it’s nothing new, the Yanks had a killer relief corp back in their hey day, Mo, Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza, the Reds had the Nasty Boys  Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble and Randy Myers arguably   the original Three Headed Monster

While most teams are jumping on shortening the game to  6 innings, the Yanks have torn down their strength already trading Warren  and Wilson bringing back a young cost controlled 4th OFer, 4 yr’s control,  a potential Cano  replacement for 4 yr’s, and the team’s most glaring weakness  minor league rotation pitching depth

The Yanks refused to  spend money on an Ace or on reliable proven relievers this off season.. There are now two  schools of thought coming out of the  Sabermetric community which has a foot hold in all  30  teams Baseball Ops Departments

The Cashman  method: The opinions of some in the sabermetric community that relievers are relatively interchangeable, and that virtually any good reliever can be a closer.

The Teams advancing in the Playoffs Method without Mets TOR (top of the rotation pitching): The Astros — a team as devoted to analytics as any other — clearly do not hold those views.

Astros now have Giles, Sipp, Gregerson, Neshack plus…Last offseason, the Astros signed two right-handed relievers, Luke Gregersonand Pat Neshek, for a combined $31 million. This year they doubled down and paid Sipp plus traded 3 top prospects, two  fringe prospects for Giles

“Also, that high-leverage, late-inning role is the hardest role in the game. It’s not something everyone who throws hard can do. We’ve proven that over and over again as an industry.”

Luhnow tried to trade for Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel at the non-waiver deadline in July, recognizing that his bullpen lacked hard throwers. The GM was not successful in either quest, and the collapse of the bullpen in the final month and Game 4 of the Division Series underscored the need for an upgrade.

Cashman  will  enter the 2015 season  unless he adds some payroll or pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Betances, Miller,  and  a Bunch of Filler.. The NYY bull pen will be a Science project this season… I’m all  for giving kids a shot, but we saw most of them  already last yr, it wasn’t a pretty sight

Maybe they all  got better in the off season, or maybe Cashman  has pulled a 2015 Boston Red Sox where they had the worst pen in baseball  and 5 number 3’s in the rotation

The back-to-back World Series appearances by the Royals — the team that vanquished the Astros in the DS — only reinforced the value of strong bullpens. It’s a copycat industry, and teams are addressing the shortage of quality starters by forming assembly lines of relievers. The data-driven Dodgers are another example; they recently tried to add Chapman to a bullpen that already included an expensive closer, Kenley Jansen.

To understand how the value of relievers is increasing, consider how the three-year guarantees for a trio of comparable relievers — Joe Smith, Gregerson and Ryan Madson — rose from $15.75 million to $18.5 million to $22 million the past three offseasons. That’s a considerable jump, even when taking into account the normal inflation in the market.

Source

WAR What Is It Good For  ? How about $184M for Paul O’Neill ?

Verducci was on MLBTV last night and he did some heavy lifting on how WAR darling Jason Heyward  landed his mega 8 yr $184M contract

Cashman  pretty much  gave the same deal  to Ellsbury  minus 1 yr, but Ellsbury was also  5 yr’s older, which shows the glaring stupidity of the NYY’s

Heyward is a good player, but  old school guys are rolling their eyes at his value, Why?  Verducci compared Heyward to Paul O’Neill  and  Dewey Evans.. Remarkably at  the same age all  three players had  extremely similar  numbers

By no means was O’Neill or Dewey Evans ever considered top  5 players in baseball, the way Heyward ’s money dictates that he is.. Guys used to get paid by their offensive stats, HR’s, BA, RBI’s maybe Slugging % maybe OPS

Now guys like Heyward make $184M, Brett Gardner got paid $13M per based on a 6.4 WAR in 2010, he’s trended downward ever since and now sits at  a 2.4 WAR

Neither player is gonna make you forget Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez or  Giancarlo Stanton offensively, in fact Heyward’s swing has more holes in it then Pebble Beach but he plays  great  defense

Gardner used to play  great  defense, but his tools are slowly fading

“We never paid for defense,” said one executive who was a general manager in the 1990s. “I would tell agents, ‘We don’t pay guys for defense.’ And nobody ever tried.”

I’m out of time but check out this source

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Written by Sal

December 14, 2015 at 5:32 am

Posted in Uncategorized

10 Responses

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  1. Damn son,,
    Sometimes I need subtitles to translate what you write into knuckleheadese lolol.

    bubbaband

    December 14, 2015 at 12:00 pm

  2. Just flipped on the FAN, you can always tell when the Jets win the Mutts are giddy
    Didn’t need to check the scores

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 12:23 pm

  3. Bonds is a Coach, McGuire is a Coach and the “Hit King” Can’t buy a vowel,
    WTF ?

    bubbaband

    December 14, 2015 at 3:25 pm

    • You can take Steroids but you can’t bet on how much they increase your performance…

      Pete was good enough to grab ratings in October for Manfred but not good enough to put in the Hall..

      Gambling is legal now non sports Fan Duel… Pete would have been better off taking PED’s

      Speed freak compiled a lot of hits, wonder how many he’d have playing straight?

      Sal

      December 14, 2015 at 4:59 pm

  4. Cueto 6 for 130M opt out after 2 yr’s

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 4:46 pm

  5. Cueto $21 AAV

    Shark $18m AAV

    $39m

    Price $31m AAV
    Greinke $32m AAV

    Shark and the Cafeteria Lady pitch 400 innings for the Giants that’s $8m more then Price so if all projects to the analytics the Giants get 200 innings for $8m lol

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 5:32 pm

  6. Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 33m33 minutes ago
    so cueto deal is slightly frontloaded ($46M of $130M comes in 1st 2 years) before player opt-out after ’17
    62 retweets 52 likes

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 5:43 pm

  7. 1 reason to do opt out after 2: cueto will only be 31 after 2017. the other reason? Kershaw, other big stars free after ’18
    52 retweets 55 likes

    So sort of a pillow contract…Tanaka can opt out that yr too

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 5:44 pm

  8. ERA leaders since 2011:
    2.11 – Kershaw
    2.71 – Cueto
    2.82 – Greinke
    2.94 – Sale
    2.99 – Wainwright
    3.02 – Price
    3.03 – Felix
    3.05 – Bumgarner

    Sal

    December 14, 2015 at 5:46 pm


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