Paint The Black

Baseball and Beyond

Jose Can You See?

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Here is an ESPN insider copy and paste.. A Boston poster has the subscription and was kind enough to  post it

RE: Trade Proposals for Jose Fernandez, and the 4 teams that have the players to  do it, no the Yanks weren’t included

The Miami Marlins control Jose Fernandez’s contract through the 2018 season, and he has the potential to be one of the game’s best starting pitchers during that time span. However, it’s also more than likely that when those three years expire, his Marlins career will end as well.
Fernandez is represented by agent Scott Boras, who has a long history of taking his elite clients to free agency unless a club wants to break contract records of huge proportions. In
Fernandez’s case, we’re looking at possibly the first $300 million pitcher by the time he gets to his free agency in the 2018-19 offseason.Of course, this is contingent on Fernandez staying healthy and pitchingto his potential.
Therefore, as unpopular as it would be to trade him, his trade value will never be higher than right now. It also would take away all risk of him possibly getting injured again and hindering his trade value. So although the best-case scenario from a baseball standpoint would be for Miami to keep Fernandez, build a strong starting rotation around him and then sign him long-term, the odds of that happening over the next couple of years is slim. So the smart business decision would be for the Marlins to trade him now, when they can get the biggest and best return.

The trade market has never been better, having skyrocketed this offseason after the Atlanta Braves received a huge haul from the Arizona Diamondbacks that included Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair and Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier and the San Diego Padres’ strong return they received from the Boston Red Sox that included Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje for one of the game’s best closers in Craig Kimbrel.
Fernandez is considered one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, with arguably the highest upside combined with three years of team control. His return should be even steeper than what the Braves receivedfor Miller and the Padres got for Kimbrel.
The only problem is there aren’t many teams that have the type of assets and financial
wherewithal to match with the Marlins on a trade of this magnitude. However, I’ve identified four teams that could possibly line up well with the Marlins in a Fernandez trade. Here’s my best guess of what a fair return would be for Fernandez based on today’s trade market:

1. Boston Red Sox
The trade: Red Sox get: Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna;
Marlins get: Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, Henry Owens.

The Red Sox can offer a strong package for Fernandez, but it would have to hurt. The deal would have to be centered around Betts, who has a chance to be a special All-Star caliber center fielder, and Rodriguez, who is a left-handed pitcher who has the potential of developing into a top starter. Devers, the Red Sox’s second-best prospect behind Yoan Moncada, would be the Marlins’ long-term solution at third base, while Owens would fit nicely in the back of Miami’s starting rotation.
From the Red Sox’s perspective, imagine having David Price and Fernandez at the top of their rotation for at least the next three seasons, especially the years they make the postseason. Of course, they would need to get Ozuna back in this trade to replace Betts’ production in the outfield and to help balance the trade. Although he doesn’t have the potential Betts has, Ozuna does have a chance to make an All-Star game or two in his career.
This would be an extremely strong package for the Marlins, and for the Red Sox, it would greatly increase their chances of winning a World Series over the next three years.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
The trade: Dodgers get: Fernandez and Ozuna;
Marlins get: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and Scott Van Slyke.

The Dodgers have had the worst offseason of any team in baseball. Their deal for Aroldis Chapman fell apart when he was investigated by Major League Baseball for domestic violence, they lost Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks when they refused to match the D-backs’ offer, they negated a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma when they didn’t like the results from his physical and passed up the opportunity to acquire Todd Frazier, wanting instead three prospects all with some type of question mark attached to them.
The Dodgers, however, have a unique opportunity to still make it a great offseason if they can land Fernandez from the Marlins. The Dodgers have a strong farm system, and if they don’t mind sacrificing several top prospects, they have a realistic chance of having what could be the best two starting pitchers in baseball for at least the next three years in Clayton Kershaw and Fernandez.
The Dodgers should hold on to Corey Seager and not include him in this deal, but to do that, they have no choice but to include two of their top pitching prospects in Urias and De Leon along with center fielder Pederson and extra player Van Slyke. The Dodgers would have to get Ozuna back in the deal, in that Ozuna would replace Pederson in center field.
The trade would give the Marlins one of the best young outfields in baseball, with Pederson joining Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton.The Marlins would get two legitimate starters back for their rotation, with the only drawback being they likely won’t be ready to pitch in the majors until at least 2017. Van Slyke would fit nicely as a platoon with Justin Bour at first base as well as being a solid fourth outfielder who is capable of playing all three outfield positions.

3. Chicago Cubs
The trade: Cubs get: Fernandez;
Marlins get: Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and C.J. Edwards.

Imagine the Cubs’ rotation with Jose Fernandez joining Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and John Lackey along with all the great young position-player talent they have assembled. Automatic World Series favorites is what I would call the Cubs.
While the Cubs don’t have the young pitching to satisfy the Marlins, what they can offer is two legitimate potential impact bats for their lineup and a solid pitching prospect who still has a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Baez would be the Marlins’ long-term solution at third base, and his 30 home run potential would fit nicely behind Stanton in their lineup. Soler could play left with Yelich moving to center field, and then the Marlins could then shop Ozuna for another starting pitcher. The problem with this trade is you really can’t trade Fernandez unless you are able to get at least two starting pitchers
back. So if they can’t make a subsequent trade for pitching, this deal probably doesn’t work despite the strong talent that would go back to Miami.

4. St. Louis Cardinals
The trade: Cardinals get: Jose Fernandez and a mid-level propect;
Marlins get: Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Stephen Piscotty.

The Cardinals made a strong push to land Price before being outbid by the Red Sox. Now Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak can turn his attention to trading for Fernandez, who would fit nicely at the top of the Cards’ rotation with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha in what would be a strong answer to the Cubs’ magnificent offseason, which included plucking both Lackey and outfielder Jason Heyward from the Cards.
The Cardinals’ trade package would have to be different than the Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs, and they would have to surrender one of their top starting pitchers in Martinez in the package. Martinez would give the Marlins their Opening Day starter, and although Martinez has some health and innings risk, he has the ceiling of being a top-of-the-rotation starter. The Marlins would also need to get Alex Reyes in the trade. Reyes, who throws a 100-mph fastball, is the Cardinals’ best pitching prospect. He will start the 2016 season serving a 50-game drug suspension, but his potential is so good that he would have to be in the
trade. Piscotty would compete or share time with Ozuna in the outfield and Bour at first base.
It would be extremely difficult and unpopular in South Florida for the Marlins to trade Fernandez and they should only consider it if they can get a ridiculously strong package
like any of the four listed above.

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Written by Sal

December 21, 2015 at 4:00 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

15 Responses

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  1. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14416603/odell-beckham-jr-new-york-giants-suspended-one-game

    Looks like the NFL got enough pressure to rap Beckett on the knuckles, also a bigger story then I assumed.. I was on a Boston site and maybe a few Pilgrims took shots at Beckham, but that was it, thought he should be penalized, but then again that’s a biased crowd

    one game suspension, but what’s with the baseball bat… ? Oh well good luck NFL fans I hope this doesn’t impact my buddies rooting interest

    Sal

    December 21, 2015 at 4:57 pm

  2. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/159656/

    Top 10 BA NYY prospect list

    SS Jorge Mateo

    C Gary Sanchez

    OF Aaron Judge

    RHP James Kaprielian

    RHP Domingo Acevedo

    RHP Rookie Davis

    SS Tyler Wade

    2B Rob Refsnyder

    SS Wilkerman Garcia

    OF Dustin Fowler

    Mateo ahead of Judge or Sanchez, yikes, these analytics dudes are strange birds

    Sal

    December 21, 2015 at 6:02 pm

  3. Yanks pitching prospects after Severino… wow we’re in trouble

    http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/12/21/beyond-severino-state-yankees-rotation-prospects/

    Sal

    December 21, 2015 at 6:08 pm

  4. In the words of Micheal Ray Richardson,
    “The Ship be Sinking”

    bubbaband

    December 21, 2015 at 8:55 pm

  5. Sal–good drop on the Fansgraph article. My question, though, is how is Hicks going to get enough at bats? They don’t seem to be inclined to move any of the starting outfielders, and platooning guys making that much money causes egos to come into play. It hardly ever works out.
    I see Mikey all over the papers today, taking Odell to the woodshed. Different time and a different circumstance, but it still makes me believe that his total defense of Arod was so ridiculous. In a different way, Arod did a helluva lot more damage than nutty Odell has.

    noogerguy

    December 22, 2015 at 11:36 am

    • Hey Noogsie, glad you dug the article….hard to figure Cashman’s plan except Hicks is $6M cheaper and 5 or 6 yr’s younger then Young…. Off the top of my head Ellsbury and Gardner get more days off, until Ellsbury is out for 30 days then Hicks slips in… Beltran is fragile too, so maybe everyday or so one guy gets a day off

      I doubt Gardner gets traded unless they take back some prospects, not sure how they spin that to help in 2016

      as for OBJ, at first I thought Mikey was milking a show, then I studied the the whole thing, and he was just jumping on the juice the incident caused… Which is fine, I guess a lot of talkies were doing the same…. Mikey kinda makes it sound like they just shot Kennedy though, jeez take it easy big boy your gonna have a stroke

      couple of kids with huge egos playing to their machismo, plus their young fan base probably likes that stuff

      They did play OBJ pretty good though, got him hot under the collar and he reacted, cost him a game I guess…

      Also Mikey makes it sound like Coughlan trying to spin the kid’s actions was insidious, doesn’t that stuff happen all the time with great players, or putting up with guys owed a ton of money like ARod?

      Look how the Yanks acted toward Sabathia, dude quit the day before the WC game, fucker’s been drunk for 3 yr’s taking $23M a yr, and they owe him another $50M so they’ll keep spinning, where’s Mikey and his soap box on that one?

      and your right Arod sued everybody and his mother there for a while, and Mikey was sticking up for him

      Every golden goose in sports gets preferential treatment remember this quote

      The next day, Stengel dropped Bauer to eighth in the batting order but left Mantle in his usual third spot. “I’m mad at him, too, for being out late,” Case said. “But I’m not mad enough to take a chance on losing a ballgame and possibly the pennant.”

      Sal

      December 22, 2015 at 5:27 pm

  6. for what it’s worth

    vhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/

    Sal

    December 22, 2015 at 6:53 pm

  7. Great point on CC and how that went away when it should not have. The stars are always coddled. Lawrence Taylor pulled shit that no one else could ever do. Parcells always looked the other way. Mikey would never mention him.
    These young guys do play to their young and no holes barred fan base. One of the bigger assholes I see is Carmelo Anthony. As I said before, he hits a 3 pointer and then does the gang “sign” of 3 bullets to the head
    Mick had his demons but kept them off the field and the press never threw him under the bus. It’s all a long way now in sports from the Mick hitting a homer and keeping his head down as he rounded the bases so that the pitcher, who he already thought he embarrassed, wouldn’t be more embarrassed.
    My gripe with Mikey is that he is always a hypocrite and talks out of both sides of his mouth.

    noogerguy

    December 22, 2015 at 7:00 pm

    • Thanks for the reminder Noogsie on the mick, and yes couldn’t agree more on Anthony
      Kind of kool that The big Latvian has taken his thunder

      Sal

      December 23, 2015 at 5:54 am

  8. Remember the old Gozzle Head, Micky Rivers faking injuries to shake down George to pay his gambling debts ?
    Every writer made jokes about it, too.
    Nothing changes but the amount of the Zorda,,

    bubbaband

    December 22, 2015 at 7:16 pm

    • Lol

      Sal

      December 23, 2015 at 5:55 am

  9. Sal

    December 23, 2015 at 5:51 am


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