Paint The Black

Baseball and Beyond

TGIS

with 4 comments

Roll Out the Bottom of the Barrel  ESPN did a December rundown of the AL East

Looks like the chalk is Boston followed by the Jays, then maybe the Yanks who are very hard to pick, thanks to  their fragile rotation, stripped down bull pen, and aging middle of the order

They  could still  win 87 games, or we can  see them battle with  the O’s and Rays for the bottom of the Barrel Prize

The DoughBoy Most likely to Fail

Looks like the Universe has no  confidence in Jacoby Ellsbury living up  to his contract, and why should they… In the first  two  seasons when he should have maximized his insidious deal, he bombed both  seasons..

He’s one yr removed from the trending the wrong way portion of his 7 yr $153M contract

Joey the Spin  said he’ll be fine, he wasn’t injured, it was all in his head..

That’s great, not only did Cashman  and Hal  hand over a King’s ransom to  a Punch  and Judy hitter on the wrong side of 30 yr’s old, he’s a head case to go with his glass body

Who Let the Dogs Out 

There is no  bigger K-nine residing in Cashman’s doghouse then Rob Refsynder. Not only did Cashman pass him by in 2015 by handing out $5M to Stephen Drew and another $2.5M to Brendan Ryan, they  totally moved Refsynder into  the abyss by acquiring Starling Castro

The Yanks still have no back up  3rd baseman, so  we can  expect Refsynder to move to his third position, and back up  the hot corner.. that  should give the Yanks the worst defensive 3rd base combo in baseball with Headley and Ref

I still have no idea what Refsynder is doing on the Yanks 40 man, unless they  start  to  make him a swiss army knife.. We know Cashman isn’t gonna take on any salary so  a real utility guy like Prado isn’t walking through the door, nor will  they  sign a feee agent unless it’s to  a minor league deal. Maybe now that Cashman’s pending lawsuit has been swept under the rug he can get back to  work looking for that  rabbit up his sleeve

A Minor Debacle

Well ain’t George King full of Yule Tide Joy  this winter.. His sources mention  the Yanks are looking for a Free agent pitcher or two, but don’t crack the Corino Vigna Giachini, Barolo just yet, the best we can expect is a minor league reclamation project.

The Blind Boy of RAB, Mikey 2 chins Axisa has a list of potential ratings grabbers Cashman is targeting..

Best case scenario we get a few guys that  can  soak up Triple A innings, so the future busts like Lail, Clarkin, Hensley, and German don’t have to mount up  innings

I get wanting to get younger, but isn’t Justin Upton younger then any OFer not named Aaron Hicks?

As for the rotation and bull pen, they’re as young as it gets, Tanaka, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Mitchell, and Nova

but sans Severino are any of them healthy, or better then # 3’s in any man’s rotation?

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Written by Sal

December 26, 2015 at 7:17 am

Posted in Uncategorized

4 Responses

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  1. thanks to my Boston pals for dropping the ESPN insider for us on Cespedes

    This is also the time of year when projections come out. Dark, foreboding things, those projections. Rooted only in the harsh reality of numbers, they are a sobering dash of cold water. Those projections have a particularly tough message for free agent Yoenis Cespedes and his fans. The flashy, power-hitting outfielder has the biggest gap between last year’s production and next season’s projections. He’s supposed to fall off nearly four wins in production next year by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement statistic, as projected by Steamer. As a free agent, that’s a rough thing to be known for.
    But the harder you look at this fact, the more it tells you about what Cespedes does well, what he doesn’t do well, and how those strengths line up with how projections work.

    When you think of Cespedes, probably the first thing that comes to mind are those moon shots he hit when he won the Home Run Derby twice. And he did have top-20 power by at least one measure last year.
    But last season was his best even in that regard. He was 20 percent better than he’d ever been before. Projections always regress a player to the mean they’ve shown — the most basic projection systems merely take last year’s work (times five), the year before (times three), and the year before (times two), and then divides the whole thing by 10. That weights recent performance the most, but it also averages it out against his baseline production. If you perform that math with his isolated power numbers, you get .223 for next year, or just barely better than his .215 career number.
    He’s projected for a .207 isolated power, though. So why is he projected for worse than a simple projection would produce?

    Cespedes is 30 now, and it looks like power ages poorly. Whether you use batted ball distance or isolated slugging percentage or home runs per fly ball, it looks like power peaks at 25 or 26. Maybe it hangs on until 27. But by 31, power is in clear decline.
    Power is not the only thing that Cespedes does well, of course. He runs the bases well, and he has a great arm. He’s added almost four wins of production over his career with those aspects. Steamer projects him to be above-average running the bases (and worth a tenth of a win, as a result), but his defense? After a career year with the glove, he’s
    projected to be league average next year, despite his great arm. That’s probably because defense peaks early — it actually peaks around 26.

    What Cespedes doesn’t do well:
    Cespedes doesn’t walk much, and that takes away from his on-base percentage. Those are outs he’s creating. But that’s been baked into his whole career value so far, and he didn’t walk last season. And he was still great.
    Look on the other side of plate discipline, and you’ll see why the projections don’t favor him as much next year. Cespedes has struck out at about a league average rate for the past two years, and he’s projected to be worse than that next season. Why?
    Cespedes reaches at pitches outside of the strike zone too much. Only 12 batters reached more often than he did last season. So far, he’s been better than average at making contact on those pitches — last year he was 5 percent better than league average at that
    skill. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he was 14th in well-hit average on pitches outside the zone.
    That almost sounds like something he does well. Except there’s this: Contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone ages worse than perhaps any skill a batter has. It takes a dive after the batter turns 28. When that starts to go for Cespedes, all that reaching is going to lead to more strikeouts, which will steal from his value.
    None of this is to say that Cespedes is a bad player. He’s fashioned a great low-ball swing that produced the 10th-best exit velocity in baseball last year.
    But each of the things he does well needs to be placed into the context of his aging process. His power and his contact on pitches outside of the zone are things that have not aged well in the context of the history of baseball. Since his next team will be buying his seasons after he turns 30, they should be interested to know that no other player in baseball is supposed to take as large a step backwards next season as Cespedes.

    Sal

    December 26, 2015 at 7:56 am

  2. Check out Sensei Joel Shermans article in the post talking about the Yanks payroll problems while trying to compete.

    dallasbomber7

    December 27, 2015 at 12:31 am

    • Thanks Big D just saw it, disturbing, but we knew it, he did lay it out in a kindly manner lol

      Sal

      December 27, 2015 at 5:30 am


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