Paint The Black

Baseball and Beyond

It’s JudgeMental Day

with 11 comments

Remember about a month  ago  when  the front office ate ARod’s $27M, traded their best hitter Beltran just  to clear some space for Sanchez, Austin  and Judge, while simultaneously they  were beefing up  the farm  system in an effort to get younger by also  trading Miller and Chapman…?

It all  started out great, for the first  time all  season we had something worth  watching  on offense as Gary Sanchez  personally went on a ridiculous run right out of the gate going  37 for 95 with 9 doubles 11 HR’s good for a 1.290 OPS

Nobody expected Sanchez to keep  up  that pace, and he didn’t, at the moment over the last 2 series vs KC and Baltimore the SanBino is a pedestrian 4 for 21, .190 with a double, 2 BB’s and 8 K’s…

Unfortunately for Sanchez and the Yanks they really have nobody to  protect the SanBino.. Humpty Teixeira is like sending Fredo Corleone to guard the Godfather.. D-Gregorius, the poor bastard should be batting 2nd or 6th or 7th, but Psycho Joe had him hitting clean-up….

So the SanBino is on his own, and it’s probably tough for a kid with his talent to not press and expand the strike zone when he feels he has to  carry the load..

Judge and Austin had a few shining moments in August that showed us what  the scouts have been seeing, potential…Of course the fact  both have struggled so far shouldn’t come as a surprise, neither player has consistently excelled on their trip  through  the system

On the contrary,  Red Sox hot shots Moncada and Benintendi both flew through the Boston system in 1 year, and both are on the varsity now  from AA)…

As for Aaron K Judge, 24 yr’s old,  he’s been in the Bomber’s system since 2014…

2014: In 131 games at Adv and Full A ball, he hit

 308 .419 .486 .905, 227 TB, 144 hits,  24 doubles, 4 triples, 17 HR’s, 467 AB’s  131 K’s, 89 BB’s

 2015: At AA Trenton, 63 games

.284 .350 .516 .866, 129 TB, 71 hits, 16 doubles, 3 triples,  12 HR’s, 250 AB’s, 70 K’s, 24 BB’s 

2015: At AAA SWB, 61 games

.224 .308 .373 .680, 85 TB,  51 hits,  10 doubles,  0 triples,  8 HR’s, 228 AB’s,  74 K’s, 29 BB’s 

2016: AAA SWB SWB, 93 games

.270 .366 .489 .854 , 172 TB, 95 hits, 18 doubles, 1 triple, 19 HR’s, 352 AB’s, 98 K’s

We’ll take Judge’s 2016  AAA line and run with it… That 27% K rate would be an extreme upgrade over his present 45.5% pace..Over a 162 game season, Judge would roughly be on pace for another 12 to 15 HR’s, so yes he’s ready to make the step up, now they just need to transfer his progress to  the next level..

So far it hasn’t panned out for the Yanks or Judge on the field, but the SaberMetric dolls are becoming prophetic

The biggest red flag in Judge’s statistical profile is his strikeout rate. He’s struck out in an unsettling 24% of his plate appearances this season, after whiffing in 26% last year. Furthermore, while Judge has tremendous power, it hasn’t always shown up in games. He’s enjoyed a nice little power spike this season, but even so, his .212 ISO falls short of elite. Prior to this season, he averaged a tick under 17 homers per 500 plate appearances, with half of that coming in A-Ball.

KATOH also penalizes him a bit for his age. At 24, Judge isn’t terribly old for a prospect who was drafted out of college, but most star hitters establish themselves in the big leagues at a younger age. Consider Giancarlo Stanton, who some have unfairly used as a body comp for Judge. By the end of his age-24 season, Stanton already had 154 homers and 21.1 WAR on his big-league ledger.

Of course, none of this is to say that Judge isn’t a good prospect. A guy who has succeeded in Triple-A and has cracked top-50 lists is most definitely a good prospect. But regardless of how far he can hit baseballs, there are a few warning signs in his profile that we shouldn’t ignore.

Of course this scouting report was done shortly after AK Judge came to  the Bronx, he’s gotten worse Re: striking out……The player comps don’t project Judge to be much more then

Aaron Judge’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Mah Dist KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Trot Nixon 0.12 6.8 17.9
2 Damon Buford 0.53 3.0 2.6
3 Darren Bragg 0.54 5.6 9.6
4 Brian Giles 0.73 5.2 20.7
5 Shin-Soo Choo 0.78 4.8 18.2
6 Richie Sexson 0.84 3.9 12.2
7 Bobby Higginson 1.27 3.0 13.5
8 Marty Cordova 1.54 3.6 6.7
9 Ben Johnson 1.69 2.9 0.4
10 Nate McLouth 1.70 4.4 8.5

This and That 

It’s now etched in every Bomber fan’s brain

Against the Yankees, Gausman is 2-1 with a 0.80 ERA in five starts. Against everyone else, he is 5-9 with a 4.40 ERA in 20 starts.

We’re now up  to  27 innings of scoring No Runs  vs Buck’s supposedly Achilles Heel, the pitching…. They’ve always had a top  2 or 3 bull pen this year, but the starting pitching has been the question for Baltimore…Not against the Yanks…

At this point the Bomber run at October is circling the drain, unless Sanchez, D-Gregorius, Castro, Judge, the two bridge trolls at the top Captain Gardner and the DoughBoy, plus the baggage department Headless, Bubbles McCan’t, and Humpty Teixeira make one last push

Marchand has the gory details on why that’s improbable, our eyes tell us it’s impossible…

Rope off the all  the tall buildings in NY, and it’s time to open that Yankees suicide hotline business for September, operators are standing by, and your call  will be taken in the order it’s received, and no  there is no  way  to  turn down  KC and the Sunshine Band’s Get Down Tonight while you wait on line for help!!

the Whole 9

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Written by Sal

September 4, 2016 at 9:49 am

Posted in Uncategorized

11 Responses

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  1. tough week end fellas, I was hoping the boys would grind out another two weeks, but it looks like the offense has hit the wall….

    They need a patsy starter hopefully it’s Miley, at least some of the RHB’s get to see a southpaw, not sure that’s a good thing but it might help

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/preview?gameId=360904101

    Sal

    September 4, 2016 at 10:07 am

  2. Moncada looked decent last night, he closed his eyes and roped a nice double over the bag at third and picked up a garbage time single in the 9th… They made it sound like he carried the team to all 11 runs off that awful Oakland pitching….

    Still Hal will regret not signing this kid, he’s blowing the farm system up in 1 yr…. smh @ Steinbrenner and CashAss

    Sal

    September 4, 2016 at 10:09 am

  3. Albeit it’s really a small sample size in the scope of things, but Kevin Gausman is becoming this generation’s Frank Lary “Yankee Killer”.
    It’s remarkable. They just can’t hit him. Ever. Even when we change up the characters he’s facing. It doesn’t matter. Everyone moves into lock step when we face him.
    I think we have to give this to Clemenza’s people. They’ll know how to handle this. After all, we’re not animals. But, go he must
    And we’ll be in church/synagogue when it happens.

    As far as the 3 top kids they brought up, I think we need patience. Getting off to a good start upon arriving is always preferable. But, the inevitable fall from that hot start shouldn’t be construed as a barometer in which to “judge” how these players will ultimately turn out.
    Everyone develops at their own special pace. I can recall many good players who didn’t develop until their mid to late twenties. Wade Boggs didn’t get it together til 26 or 27. Big Papi late twenties. Louisiana Lightning 26 or 27. Warren Spahn, after WWII, late twenties had a phenomenally long & illustrious career.
    I’m not saying that Sanchez, Austin, & Judge are equal to the aforementioned. All I’m saying is that everyone develops at their own pace, & some of those stats are developmental & could change over time to the player they eventually become.
    A case in point. Big Papi was not a power hitter in Minnesota. They wanted him to go the other way. It wasn’t till he got to Beantown that he became what he’s been for the last 12 years.
    Just sayin….

    Anonymous

    September 4, 2016 at 1:05 pm

  4. That last comment was not by anonymous. It was me Mosconebailbonds.
    I signed in my name & posted.
    Only anonymous was listed as the writer.
    Hey Sal!! There’s a glitch in the system!!!!!

    Mosconebailbonds

    September 4, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    • I’ll get my best man on it bondsie… Question : the fact you were able to fix the problem is there a possibility t DonB Crocker is involved??

      Great take BTW !!

      Sal

      September 4, 2016 at 1:29 pm

  5. yes I’m seeing some difficulty.. all engines checked out in the boiler room let me reboot… thanks

    Sal

    September 4, 2016 at 1:32 pm

    • test

      Sal

      September 4, 2016 at 1:33 pm

  6. Glad to see some people are still working this Holiday Weekend! As to whether the great Don B is somehow involved with these nefarious glitches……who’s to say? The long arm of the Don B has its tentacles in everything. His people are everywhere.
    Psycho Joe had better let somebody else start his car for him.
    Just sayin…..

    Mosconebailbonds

    September 4, 2016 at 1:57 pm

  7. The SanBino and especially A K Judge have turned into automatic outs
    They need more patience then we do at the plate

    Good job by the Romine Empire picking them up

    Must important game of the yr and all kids are playing, that works

    Sal

    September 4, 2016 at 1:59 pm

  8. Time for Pinetop to step it up & be who he can be. Can’t afford any lack of focus & concentration.
    Which has been his MO & the thing that has retarded his chance to match his tools with his performance.

    Mosconebailbonds

    September 4, 2016 at 2:26 pm

    • Totally agree mB, Pineda is retarded

      How good is Severino when he doesn’t have to think, he’s Rambo out of the pen

      Sal

      September 5, 2016 at 3:52 am


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