Paint The Black

Baseball and Beyond

The Tanaka Watch

with 11 comments

Things are definitely slowing down on the Yankees Hot Stove scene, today Joel Sherman wrote a brief little diddy on who  plays 3rd base if Headley gets traded

It’s a short list Joel,  you could make it 2 candidates if you add Ruben Tejada to Ronald Torreyes… And for that  reason, Chase Headley will no doubt be a NY Yankee come April..

I mean if you’re a team up  against the cap, or wanting salary flexibility,  are you adding $26M, $13M per for Chase Headley?

Cashman basically came out and told the media, boys and girls if you’re looking for an Extra-Extra splash, you’re following the wrong team….

The TJ Tanaka Extension Dilemma 

Masahiro Tanaka has one more season (2017) before he can  opt out of his original $155M contract

7 years/$155M (2014-20)

At the moment Tanaka is owed 4 yr’s $89M..

But realistically the number we really want to  focus on is 3 years $67M, because  after 2017 when if healthy, he certainly will exercise his player opt out.. There was a time when Tanaka’s barking elbow made him a potential  bust, but diligent  rehab has Tanaka still pitching as a the top of the rotation Ace ( 3.26 ERA (3.72 FIP) in 353.2 innings since) 

So  what is Tanaka worth on the market?

Jeff Samardzija led the league in hits allowed, earned runs, and home runs allowed back in 2015 and still landed a five-year deal worth $90M

You could also  look to David Price who  at age 30 inked a 7 yr $217M  Free Agent deal with  an opt out after 3 yr’s..

Tanaka will  be 28 yr’s old for the entire 2017 season, and 29 when he can hit the open market if he chooses.. On paper  he has 4 possibly 5 prime seasons left

The Yanks usually don’t hand out extensions, obviously, or Cano  would have gotten one in 2010  and he’d be entering  his prime as a Yankee, and his free agency as a Star on the decline for some other team..

Actually Captain Gardner was awarded an  extension 4 yr’s $52M  on 2/23/14.. So  they  let a star like Cano get to  free agency, but extend a wet newspaper hitting decent defensive corner outfielder… Accountants, can’t live with or without them…

The proposed Tanaka extension  by one media outlet is to offer a 3 yr $90M extension now

Adding three years and $90M to Tanaka’s contract puts him at six years and $157M total from 2017-22. That’s Cole Hamels (six years, $144M) and Jon Lester (six years, $155M) money.

The $30M per is the new going rate for uber Aces like Price, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer..

 Price and Greinke didn’t really live up  to  their first  yr’s value, and Tanaka does have a barking elbow..Then again Kershaw has a bad back, and Scherzer has whacked out mechanics that scream injury…

Despite the pros and cons, at the end of the day Tanaka’s elbow might cost him a few bucks, but it might not be a deal  breaker seeing how expensive top of the rotation hurlers are now.

Mickey 2 Chin’s suggests the Yanks could insert a John Lackey clause to protect against a potential TJ incident

a clause in the deal that gave them a sixth year club option at the league minimum should Lackey have Tommy John surgery at some point during the life of the contract. He did and they picked up the option.

Despite Hal  wanting to get under the Lux Tax if Tanaka did agree to  an extension of 3 yr’s $90M, on top of the remaining 3 yr $67M  we’re looking at  6 yr’s $157M

If Hal  wants an Ace pitcher, $26M per is a bargain..

If Hal  wants to  rid his payroll  structure of more money he can  kick Tanaka’s $22.3M AAV out the door and have No Ace..

That’s why acquiring Chris Sale who is owed 3 yr’s $38M is so brilliant, especially when  it  it cost the Big Dombrowski  a 20 yr old knucklehead  with a big arm, and a Cuban whiz kid who at the moment   can’t hit a curve ball on the MLB level..

If Hal  allows Tanaka to hit free agency in 2018, good chance he can  land a better deal  then  5 yr $135M, especially with bar setters like Price, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer in the $30M per year range

Tanaka opt out source M2C

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Written by Sal

December 15, 2016 at 8:50 am

Posted in Uncategorized

11 Responses

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  1. The way I see it the pen should be Chappy, Betances, Clippard, Warren once he loses his bid to start, Severino, same deal

    If they can find salary flexibility, Boone Logan, and 1 of Cessa, Green, Mitchell….

    Betances gets traded at the deadline for a prospect haul ?

    Sal

    December 15, 2016 at 10:18 am

  2. Those young kids sound great on paper.
    So many arms/careers are getting derailed due to injuries tho.
    Next life i come back as a tommy John surgeon
    Sheeesh
    Is it all the innings thrown earlier now or ???
    Wtf Sal ??

    bubbaband

    December 15, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    • Donny I think moscone covered most of why injuries are so prevalent .. that and technology finds injuries that back in the day doctors couldn’t detect , so you pitched through it, at least that’s the narrative

      It’s the same thing with umpiring, I don’t think it’s any worse, I just think technology points out all the sins ..

      Sal

      December 15, 2016 at 4:30 pm

  3. Don B, as to why so many injuries now with pitchers, I think it’s a combination of things. These kids throw very hard, & with improper mechanics, it can lead to injuries.
    Also, these kids throw all year round! There’s no down time for their arms to heal from the season.
    Hey Sal, I agree with most, but I think you’re being a little harsh regarding Gardy.
    I think he’s an exceptional left fielder

    Mosconebailbonds

    December 15, 2016 at 4:03 pm

  4. Bondsie, I’m the vice president of the Trash Brett Gardner fan club, only President Noogsie has more clout then me, I have to be harsh… lol

    yes Gardner is better then I’m giving him credit for good call…I still want him and his money off the books, unless they can ship Ellsbury outta here

    Sal

    December 16, 2016 at 6:29 am

  5. Re: Gardner since his coming out party in 2010 he’s regressed every season.. Still a decent OF, more suited for CF then a corner.. I still think he can catch the ball, he makes great plays, but teams run on his arm and he’s practically clueless at the plate…

    The minute they signed him they should have traded him, now they can’t give him away without taking back money

    Over his last three seasons, Gardner’s stolen bases have dipped, averaging only 22 per year despite his status among the fastest players in the league. Yankees fans have taken solace in his relatively excellent contract and his defensive skills providing value. After all, his Ultimate Zone Rating in 2010 was an incredible 24.8, and through the end of the 2013 season, he had career marks of 36.5 UZR/150 in left field and 10.7 UZR/150 in center.

    Unfortunately, Gardner’s value in the field and on the basepaths have diminished enough to make him dangerously close to becoming a net negative in those categories. Last season, thanks at least in part to injury, Gardner provided negative value in UZR (-2.7), he was considered neutral in Defensive Runs Saved Above Average, and he was only marginally valuable Range Runs Above Average (+0.7). Gardner’s UZR in 2014 was +2.4 and in 2013 was -0.5, so this drop-off has not been without warning, but it is marginally alarming to consider that an increasing total of his value is now tied in his ability to hit above average.

    Gardner has done exactly that in each year since 2011, maintaining an OPS+ around 110 thanks to his added power and ability to consistently get on base. Beyond his age, there is little reason to believe he will suddenly forget how to hit for power in 2016 and on through the end of his contract in 2019. While 2015 marked his worst offensive season in years, he was still an above average hitter for his position.

    Sal

    December 16, 2016 at 6:43 am

    • http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-analysis-sabermetrics/2016/1/15/10770112/yankees-outfielder-brett-gardner-defensive-value-power

      This article stated his power would return in 2016 but it didn’t, neither did his base running skills, and he’s one hitter you can smoke with high heat, why pitchers mess around and speed up his bat is a head scratcher

      the Yanks paid for at least this line (2010) .277 .383 .379 .762

      but are now getting this .261 .351 .362 .713

      I’m not big on UZR metrics, but that’s what made Garnder famous, the metric dudes loved him… Now that he’s slowing down and his range is diminished, his arm not so great they have made him a negative defender, which I don’t agree with but it’s telling that the analytics that made him are now tearing him down

      He did cut down on K’s , back to slightly over a 100, for 3 years he was 127 /134 / 135 around a 21% K Rate not terrible.. His K rate went up when he started to hit more Taters

      the fact we can’t trade him with out taking back money is telling… Seems like a good clubhouse guy… With Ellsbury here Gardy is out of position.. Left field is a tough field in the Bronx so he does a good job out there

      from my vantage point I would love to see him jettisoned….

      Sal

      December 16, 2016 at 6:54 am

  6. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2681783-when-is-perfect-time-to-trade-harper-machado-and-rest-of-lauded-18-fa-class?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=web-des-art-top-18

    What would you do if Machado and Harper were being traded? Teams are gonna find it tough to flip superstars with only 1 or 2 yr’s remaining on their contracts.. Are you giving up your core for one player, then hope you can sign him to $300M plus?

    it’s gonna cost 5 of these guys plus Sanchez

    Sal

    December 16, 2016 at 7:39 am

  7. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/12/yankees_prospect_jorge_mateo_out_to_prove_doubters.html#incart_river_index

    poor Mateo training hard on a beautiful beach lol

    these guys ever hear of Marvin Haglar, he trained on the beaches in Providence in the winter by Jesus

    go get em jorge

    Sal

    December 16, 2016 at 7:52 am


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